Multi-scale reliability-based design optimisation framework for fibre-reinforced composite laminates

Purpose The purpose of this study is to enable performing reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) for a composite component while accounting for several multi-scale uncertainties using a large representative volume element (LRVE). This is achieved using an efficient finite element analysis (FEA)-based multi-scale reliability framework and sequential optimisation strategy. Design/methodology/approach An efficient FEA-based multi-scale reliability framework used in this study is extended and combined with a proposed sequential optimisation strategy to produce an efficient, flexible and accurate RBDO framework for fibre-reinforced composite laminate components. The proposed RBDO strategy is demonstrated by finding the optimum design solution for a composite component under the effect of multi-scale uncertainties while meeting a specific stiffness reliability requirement. Performing this using the double-loop approach is computationally expensive because of the number of uncertainties and function evaluations required to assess the reliability. Thus, a sequential optimisation concept is proposed, which starts by finding a deterministic optimum solution, then assesses the reliability and shifts the constraint limit to a safer region. This is repeated until the desired level of reliability is reached. This is followed by a final probabilistic optimisation to reduce the mass further and meet the desired level of stiffness reliability. In addition, the proposed framework uses several surrogate models to replace expensive FE function evaluations during optimisation and reliability analysis. The numerical example is also used to investigate the effect of using different sizes of LRVEs, compared with a single RVE. In future work, other problem-dependent surrogates such as Kriging will be used to allow predicting lower probability of failures with high accuracy. Findings The integration of the developed multi-scale reliability framework with the sequential RBDO optimisation strategy is proven computationally feasible, and it is shown that the use of LRVEs leads to less conservative designs compared with the use of single RVE, i.e. up to 3.5% weight reduction in the case of the 1 × 1 RVE optimised component. This is because the LRVE provides a representation of the spatial variability of uncertainties in a composite material while capturing a wider range of uncertainties at each iteration. Originality/value Fibre-reinforced composite laminate components designed using reliability and optimisation have been investigated before. Still, they have not previously been combined in a comprehensive multi-scale RBDO. Therefore, this study combines the probabilistic framework with an optimisation strategy to perform multi-scale RBDO and demonstrates its feasibility and efficiency for an fibre reinforced polymer component designUniversity of Aberdeen Elphinstone scholarship scheme

Fine-Scale mapping of the 11q13 breast cancer susceptibility locus

The Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility genome-wide association study (GWAS) originally identified a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs11249433 at 1p11.2 associated with breast cancer risk. To fine-map this locus, we genotyped 92 SNPs in a 900kb region (120,505,799–121,481,132) flanking rs11249433 in 45,276 breast cancer cases and 48,998 controls of European, Asian and African ancestry from 50 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Genotyping was done using iCOGS, a custom-built array. Due to the complicated nature of the region on chr1p11.2: 120,300,000–120,505,798, that lies near the centromere and contains seven duplicated genomic segments, we restricted analyses to 429 SNPs excluding the duplicated regions (42 genotyped and 387 imputed). Perallelic associations with breast cancer risk were estimated using logistic regression models adjusting for study and ancestry-specific principal components. The strongest association observed was with the original identified index SNP rs11249433 (minor allele frequency (MAF) 0.402; per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.13, $\small \textit{P}$ = 1.49 x 10$^{-21}$). The association for rs11249433 was limited to ER-positive breast cancers (test for heterogeneity $\small \textit{P}$ $\leq$ 8.41 x 10$^{-5}$). Additional analyses by other tumor characteristics showed stronger associations with moderately/well differentiated tumors and tumors of lobular histology. Although no significant eQTL associations were observed, in silico analyses showed that rs11249433 was located in a region that is likely a weak enhancer/promoter. Fine-mapping analysis of the 1p11.2 breast cancer susceptibility locus confirms this region to be limited to risk to cancers that are ER-positive.Cancer Research UK (Grant IDs: C1287/A10118, C1287/A12014, C490/A10124, C1287/A10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, C8197/A16565), European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (Grant ID: HEALTH-F2-2009-223175), National Institutes of Health (Grant IDs: CA128978, CA116167, CA176785, CA116201, CA63464, CA54281, CA098758, CA132839, R01CA100374, R01CA64277, R01CA148667, R37CA70867, R01CA092447), National Institute for Health Research. See also Table K via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0160316.s003This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.016031

Saliva samples are a viable alternative to blood samples as a source of DNA for high throughput genotyping.

BACKGROUND: The increasing trend for incorporation of biological sample collection within clinical trials requires sample collection procedures which are convenient and acceptable for both patients and clinicians. This study investigated the feasibility of using saliva-extracted DNA in comparison to blood-derived DNA, across two genotyping platforms: Applied Biosystems Taqman™ and Illumina Beadchip™ genome-wide arrays. METHOD: Patients were recruited from the Pharmacogenetics of Breast Cancer Chemotherapy (PGSNPS) study. Paired blood and saliva samples were collected from 79 study participants. The Oragene DNA Self-Collection kit (DNAgenotek®) was used to collect and extract DNA from saliva. DNA from EDTA blood samples (median volume 8 ml) was extracted by Gen-Probe, Livingstone, UK. DNA yields, standard measures of DNA quality, genotype call rates and genotype concordance between paired, duplicated samples were assessed. RESULTS: Total DNA yields were lower from saliva (mean 24 μg, range 0.2-52 μg) than from blood (mean 210 μg, range 58-577 μg) and a 2-fold difference remained after adjusting for the volume of biological material collected. Protein contamination and DNA fragmentation measures were greater in saliva DNA. 78/79 saliva samples yielded sufficient DNA for use on Illumina Beadchip arrays and using Taqman assays. Four samples were randomly selected for genotyping in duplicate on the Illumina Beadchip arrays. All samples were genotyped using Taqman assays. DNA quality, as assessed by genotype call rates and genotype concordance between matched pairs of DNA was high (>97%) for each measure in both blood and saliva-derived DNA. CONCLUSION: We conclude that DNA from saliva and blood samples is comparable when genotyping using either Taqman assays or genome-wide chip arrays. Saliva sampling has the potential to increase participant recruitment within clinical trials, as well as reducing the resources and organisation required for multicentre sample collection.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Introduction: Examined Live – An Epistemological Exchange Between Philosophy and Cultural Psychology on Reflection

Besides the general agreement about the human capability of reflection, there is a large area of disagreement and debate about the nature and value of “reflective scrutiny” and the role of “second-order states” in everyday life. This problem has been discussed in a vast and heterogeneous literature about topics such as epistemic injustice, epistemic norms, agency, understanding, meta-cognition etc. However, there is not yet any extensive and interdisciplinary work, specifically focused on the topic of the epistemic value of reflection. This volume is one of the first attempts aimed at providing an innovative contribution, an exchange between philosophy, epistemology and psychology about the place and value of reflection in everyday life. Our goal in the next sections is not to offer an exhaustive overview of recent work on epistemic reflection, nor to mimic all of the contributions made by the chapters in this volume. We will try to highlight some topics that have motivated a new resumption of this field and, with that, drawing on chapters from this volume where relevant. Two elements defined the scope and content of this volume, on the one hand, the crucial contribution of Ernest Sosa, whose works provide original and thought-provoking contributions to contemporary epistemology in setting a new direction for old dilemmas about the nature and value of knowledge, giving a central place to reflection. On the other hand, the recent developments of cultural psychology, in the version of the “Aalborg approach”, reconsider the object and scope of psychological sciences, stressing that “[h]uman conduct is purposeful”

More breast cancer genes?

A new gene associated with a high risk of breast cancer, termed BRCAX, may exist on chromosome 13q. Tumours from multicase Nordic breast cancer families, in which mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 had been excluded, were analyzed using comparative genomic hybridization in order to identify a region of interest, which was apparently confirmed and refined using linkage analysis on an independent sample. The present commentary discusses this work. It also asks why there should exist genetic variants associated with susceptibility to breast cancer other than mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, and what might be their modes of inheritance, allele frequencies and risks. Replication studies will be needed to clarify whether there really is a tumour suppressor gene other than BRCA2 on chromosome 13q

Common variants in the ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 and TP53 cancer susceptibility genes are unlikely to increase breast cancer risk

RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are.Abstract Introduction Certain rare, familial mutations in the ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 or TP53 genes increase susceptibility to breast cancer but it has not, until now, been clear whether common polymorphic variants in the same genes also increase risk. Methods We have attempted a comprehensive, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)- and haplotype-tagging association study on each of these five genes in up to 4,474 breast cancer cases from the British, East Anglian SEARCH study and 4,560 controls from the EPIC-Norfolk study, using a two-stage study design. Nine tag SNPs were genotyped in ATM, together with five in BRCA1, sixteen in BRCA2, ten in CHEK2 and five in TP53, with the aim of tagging all other known, common variants. SNPs generating the common amino acid substitutions were specifically forced into the tagging set for each gene. Results No significant breast cancer associations were detected with any individual or combination of tag SNPs. Conclusion It is unlikely that there are any other common variants in these genes conferring measurably increased risks of breast cancer in our study population

Interactions between genes involved in the antioxidant defence system and breast cancer risk

The aim of the study is to examine the association between multilocus genotypes across 10 genes encoding proteins in the antioxidant defence system and breast cancer. The 10 genes are SOD1, SOD2, GPX1, GPX4, GSR, CAT, TXN, TXN2, TXNRD1 and TXNRD2. In all, 2271 cases and 2280 controls were used to examine gene–gene interactions between 52 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are hypothesised to tag all common variants in the 10 genes. The statistical analysis is based on three methods: unconditional logistic regression, multifactor dimensionality reduction and hierarchical cluster analysis. We examined all two- and three-way combinations with unconditional logistic regression and multifactor dimensionality reduction, and used a global approach with all SNPs in the hierarchical cluster analysis. Single-locus studies of an association of genetic variants in the antioxidant defence genes and breast cancer have been contradictory and inconclusive. It is the first time, to our knowledge, the association between multilocus genotypes across genes coding for antioxidant defence enzymes and breast cancer is investigated. We found no evidence of an association with breast cancer with our multilocus approach. The search for two-way interactions gave experiment-wise significance levels of P=0.24 (TXN [t2715c] and TXNRD2 [g23524a]) and P=0.58 (GSR [c39396t] and TXNRD2 [a442g]), for the unconditional logistic regression and multifactor dimensionality reduction, respectively. The experiment-wise significance levels for the three-way interactions were P=0.94 (GPX4 [t2572c], TXN [t2715c] and TXNRD2 [g23524a]) and P=0.29 (GSR [c39396t], TXN [t2715c] and TXNRD2 [a442g]) for the unconditional logistic regression and multifactor dimensionality reduction, respectively. In the hierarchical cluster analysis neither the average across four rounds with replacement of missing values at random (P=0.12) nor a fifth round with more balanced proportion of missing values between cases and controls (P=0.17) was significant

Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in the risk of mortality per 7-week period (odds ratio [OR] 0·68 [95% CI 0·65-0·71]). The higher proportions of patients with severe disease and comorbidities earlier in the first wave (March and April) than in June and July accounted for 10·2% of this reduction. The use of respiratory support changed during the first wave, with gradually increased use of non-invasive ventilation over the first wave. Changes in respiratory support and use of steroids accounted for 22·2%, OR 0·95 (0·94-0·95) of the reduction in in-hospital mortality. INTERPRETATION: The reduction in in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 during the first wave in the UK was partly accounted for by changes in the case-mix and illness severity. A significant reduction in in-hospital mortality was associated with differences in respiratory support and critical care use, which could partly reflect accrual of clinical knowledge. The remaining improvement in in-hospital mortality is not explained by these factors, and could be associated with changes in community behaviour, inoculum dose, and hospital capacity strain. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council

Carbon monoxide production from five volatile anesthetics in dry sodalime in a patient model: halothane and sevoflurane do produce carbon monoxide; temperature is a poor predictor of carbon monoxide production

BACKGROUND: Desflurane and enflurane have been reported to produce substantial amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) in desiccated sodalime. Isoflurane is said to produce less CO and sevoflurane and halothane should produce no CO at all. The purpose of this study is to measure the maximum amounts of CO production for all modern volatile anesthetics, with completely dry sodalime. We also tried to establish a relationship between CO production and temperature increase inside the sodalime. METHODS: A patient model was simulated using a circle anesthesia system connected to an artificial lung. Completely desiccated sodalime (950 grams) was used in this system. A low flow anesthesia (500 ml/min) was maintained using nitrous oxide with desflurane, enflurane, isoflurane, halothane or sevoflurane. For immediate quantification of CO production a portable gas chromatograph was used. Temperature was measured within the sodalime container. RESULTS: Peak concentrations of CO were very high with desflurane and enflurane (14262 and 10654 ppm respectively). It was lower with isoflurane (2512 ppm). We also measured small concentrations of CO for sevoflurane and halothane. No significant temperature increases were detected with high CO productions. CONCLUSION: All modern volatile anesthetics produce CO in desiccated sodalime. Sodalime temperature increase is a poor predictor of CO production

CHEK2 1100delC is prevalent in Swedish early onset familial breast cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A truncating variant, 1100delC, in check point-kinase CHEK2, has been identified as a risk factor for familial and sporadic breast cancer. The prevalence in healthy non-breast cancer cases is low and varies between populations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed the prevalence of <it>CHEK2 </it>1100delC in 763 breast cancer patients with a defined family history and 760 controls from the Stockholm region. The breast cancer patients originated from; a population-based cohort (n = 452) and from a familial cancer clinic (n = 311), the detailed family history was known in both groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The variant was found in 2.9% of the familial cases from the population-based cohort and in 1.9% from the familial cancer clinic. In total 2.2% of the patients with a family history of breast cancer carried the variant compared to 0.7% of the controls (p = 0.03). There was no increased prevalence in sporadic patients (0.3%). The variant was most frequent in young familial patients (5.1% of cases ≤45 years, p = 0.003). The mean age at diagnosis of variant carriers was 12 years lower than in non-carriers (p = 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In conclusion, <it>CHEK2 </it>1100delC exists in the Swedish population. The prevalence is increased in familial breast cancer and the variant seems to influence age at onset.</p